23 March 2014

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 70-game report

This is my latest update for the 2013/14 regular season on which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to its 70th game. (This follows on from my 60-game update.)

[Click to enlarge any image]

Commercial break...
  • For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis
  • I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H)
  • I will be hopefully also contributing on an irregular basis to Hockey Prospectus
Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 70 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season)

CHIP figures in graphical form (paler bars represent the three "retired" players on LTIR noted below):


The same for AMIP (teams in the same order as the CHIP chart for ease of comparison):


The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 61-70 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • Bored with missing only four players per game over the previous 10-game stretch, the Red Wings really ramped things up by basically doubling that over the next 10, with Zetterberg and Datsyuk missing throughout, plus (perhaps of marginally less importance) the warm bodies inhabiting the Cleary and Samuelsson jerseys these days.
  • The high CHIP watermark over the last five years of the 2011/12 Canadiens ($16.9m) is very possibly under threat.
  • Despite the continuing fly-esque player dropping instances in Michigan and a couple of other places, there were seven teams with single-digit MGL figures in the 10-game period (if you ignore Pronger from the Flyers' figures and Ohlund/Lee from the Lightning's), which again suggests the Olympic break and compressed schedule hasn't demolished the player population quite as much as you might be led to believe.
  • Comparing the CHIP and AMIP figures for the Red Wings and Penguins gives a nice illustration that defensemen tend to play more minutes than forwards, which is obviously a ground-breaking discovery.
The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:



Yeah, Gaborik doesn't play for Columbus (still unconvinced he ever did), but the figures above represent games missed for the team the player was with at the time.  So, the smaller chunks for Fasth and Robidas accrued with their new teams are much lower down the list (not in the top 30).

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.


The crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) now stands at 0.78 per game now (compared to 0.80 last year, 0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


While the Coyotes might look extremely evasive, next year they have league approval to move from disclosing injuries as upper/lower body to describing them as "somewhere in Arizona".

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • Click HERE if you want a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

7 March 2014

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 60-game report

This is my latest update for the 2013/14 regular season on which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to its 60th game. (This follows on from my 50-game update.)

[Click to enlarge any image]

Commercial break...
  • For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis
  • I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H)
  • I will be hopefully also contributing on an irregular basis to Hockey Prospectus
Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 60 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season)

CHIP figures in graphical form (paler bars represent the three "retired" players on LTIR noted below):


The same for AMIP (teams in the same order as the CHIP chart for ease of comparison):


The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 51-60 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • The Red Wings hit hardest for the second consecutive update (with more Zettersyuk-related pain yet to come)
  • Conversely, the Coyotes followed up with another very healthy stretch (actually only two MGL - the other two being adjustments from a previous period), which helped them to a very Coyote-like 4-4-2 record over those games
  • Although the Olympic break fell after the 60-game for a few teams, so not strictly 100% relevant for this update, I make it that there were 24 players who missed their team's last game before the break, but were then available for the first game after the break.  Perhaps a slight counterpoint to the complaints about the handful of players who returned from Sochi injured (upsetting one big-shouldered GM to the point he seemingly forgot there was something important he had to do before the trade deadline)
The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:



With Stamkos, Gaborik and Rinne now back in action, which of the three would you think has the best chance of getting injured again before the end of the year?  No joKing.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.


The crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) has actually dropped from 0.80 per game through the 50-game mark to 0.77 per game now (compared to 0.80 last year, 0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).  Related to the Olympic break?

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


Philip Larsen has managed to sneak in a very rare undisclosed Oiler injury under the radar of the local media, presumably distracted by the rampant competition to see which writer could make last contact with the door hitting Ales Hemsky on his way out.

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • Click HERE if you want a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

27 January 2014

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 50-game report

This is my latest update for the 2013/14 regular season on which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to its 50th game. (This follows on from my mid-season analysis.)

[Click to enlarge any image]

Commercial break...
  • For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis
  • I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H)
  • I will be hopefully also contributing on an irregular basis to Hockey Prospectus
Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 50 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season)

CHIP figures in graphical form (paler bars represent the three "retired" players on LTIR noted below):


The same for AMIP (teams in the same order as the CHIP chart for ease of comparison):


The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 42-50 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • Pretty much a tie at the top between Pittsburgh, Carolina and Detroit now, the Red Wings clearly having it pretty rough over the last stretch to make up a lot of ground, with Darren Helm, Jonas Gustavsson, Jonathan Ericsson, Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk, Daniel Alfredsson and "Stephen Weiss" each missing at least six of the nine games covered since the mid-point.
  • Minnesota also notable movers, the fairly modest 32 man-games lost in the period unfortunately mostly coming from key contributors Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Josh Harding and Jared Spurgeon.
  • Conversely, Florida's 29 man-games in the period don't stack up to a huge amount in CHIP terms. Not until Dale Tallon goes all Cam Barker on those players anyway.
  • Ottawa finally hit some (still mild) injury adversity, Jason Spezza and Chris Neil getting knocked down by some stray tumbleweed while innocently walking through the treatment room.
The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:



As if to illustrate the problems with using unstable TOI figures derived for goalies, Anton Khudobin has actually shot up towards the top of the CMIP list despite now being healthy, because his average time in goal is now much higher as he plays much more while Cam Ward is hurt instead.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.


The crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) continues to regress back towards that in previous years, now at 0.80 per game (0.80 last year, 0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Very encouraging to see the re-emergence of "body soreness" as an acceptable descriptor, with Buffalo's Mark Pysyk seemingly the latest to be afflicted.

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


I was going to comment on the negative correlation between the Oilers' injury disclosure and on-ice success, but having reflected on the possible consequences, I thought it would be worthwhile to look up the resume of Kevin Lowe once again. There's a lot of conversation about Lowe's vices but people are ignoring a whole resume of experience and success. For more regarding Lowe's career see the provided link. http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=33071

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • Click HERE if you want a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

5 January 2014

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - mid-season report

This is my latest update for the 2013/14 regular season on which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to mid-season, i.e. after the 41st game for each. (This follows on from my 30-game analysis.)

Commercial break...
  • For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis
  • I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H)
  • I will be hopefully also contributing on an irregular basis to Hockey Prospectus (see my first and second posts)
Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 41 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season) - for non-interesting reasons, average TOI figures aren't quite measured at the 30-game point this time around for a few teams, but of no great significance to the analysis

CHIP figures in graphical form:


The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 31-41 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • Columbus sneak into top CHIP spot thanks to Nathan Horton's continued (but now ended) absence, plus another Marian Gaborik owee and Sergei Bobrovsky's turn on the NHL goalie groinaround
  • A very impressive and highly publicised (amazingly) 95 MGL in 11 games piled up by Pittsburgh, who obviously went 9-2 in that stretch, possibly in part due to facing plenty of non-playoff opposition in the fearsome Eastern Conference and 37 of the MGL being down to Tomas Vokoun, Andrew Ebbett, Tanner Glass and Jayson Megna
  • If weighting by TOI, Columbus haven't suffered as much as Pittsburgh, Carolina and Anaheim, although each of the latter three teams' AMIP figures are probably somewhat inflated by the weight placed on long absences to Vokoun, Anton Khudobin and Viktor Fasth respectively
  • Big movers include Boston (Eriksson, McQuaid, Seidenberg, Kelly, DOUGIE Hamilton and Kelly) and Detroit (Helm, Howard, Franzen, Weiss, DeKeyser, Zetterberg, Abdelkader, Nyquist) upwards and Edmonton in the unfamiliar direction of downwards
  • Ottawa's good health (prior to the latest Jason Spezza injury) is still pretty remarkable, but their CHIP figure pro-rated over 82 games would still only put them the third healthiest over the six years I have recorded (behind Carolina's 64 MGL and $1.2m CHIP in 2010/11 and the Rangers' 30 MGL and $1.3m CHIP in 2008/09)
  • Worth repeating that the Flyers have been essentially very healthy all year too - they would lie in a clear 29th place by CHIP if discounting the permanent/long-term losses of Chris Pronger and M-A Bourdon
The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:



A few of the big CHIPers (Horton, Jovanovski, Clowe, Quick, Bozak) are now playing and living up to every penny of their contracts again, so expect the very long-term cases to dominate the top of the table the rest of the way  Tampa Bay clearly missing the minutes usually munched by Brian Lee much more than those by the Stamkos guy.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.


The crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) continues to regress back towards that in previous years, now at 0.82 per game (0.80 last year, 0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Derick BrASSard's unfortunate case of back side pressure sadly only got classified as lower body, while I will continue to monitor closely the outbreak of "total body soreness" currently afflicting Patrik Elias and Anton Volchenkov in New Jersey.

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


Expect the Flames' figure to plummet further under the direction of known media recluse Brian Burke.  Since last time, we've had flu, ankle, two knees and an illness from them, although the last one might have been Bobby Ryan trying to spell something else.

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • Get in touch if you want a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player (web sharing of this no longer playing ball with me)
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

15 December 2013

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 30-game report

This is my third look for the 2013/14 regular season at which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness. 

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to its 30th game. (Amazingly, this follows on from my 20-game analysis.)

For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis and if I find time after figuring out how to best to incorporate a reference to Derick Brassard's injured posterior in the next update, I'll do my best to put out the same info via Twitter (@LW3H).

Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 30 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season) - for non-interesting reasons, average TOI figures aren't quite measured at the 30-game point this time around for a few teams, but of no great significance to the analysis

The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 21-30 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • Columbus (Horton, Gaborik, Dubinsky) and Tampa Bay (Stamkos and a bunch of not-Stamkoses) the most notable risers
  • Ottawa's only significant losses remain on the scoreboard and in Eugene Melnyk's bank balance
  • With only one game missed among the group, the health of the Rangers defense clearly benefitting from the shift away from the maniac Tortorella's shot-block-at-all-costs philosophy, with only Vancouver's blueline being healthier, clearly benefitting from the shift towards the maniac Tortorella's shot-block-at-all-costs philosophy (Staal and Edler injuries after Game 30 not yet showing up here)
  • As you would expect, the lack of injuries in Buffalo over the 10-game period has contributed to the team's dramatic turnaround to elite status
  • As you would expect, the lack of goaltender injuries in Calgary over the whole season has contributed to the team's stellar save percentage

The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:

As the video shows, Tim Gleason's absences have been of precisely the same value as Evgeni Nabokov's in terms of TOI, with the obvious flaw being that Gleason's save percentage is much, much better than Nabokov's.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.

 
Again, as more players have come back from injuries pre-dating the season starting, the crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) has drifted down further from 0.91 (10 games) to 0.86 (20 games) to 0.83, compared to 0.80 per game last year (0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


A couple of rare lapses of disclosure in Carolina.  Interestingly, the Flames have a regular injury update page on their official website, though it still doesn't preclude them from having one or two UBI/LBI cases, nor from Brian Burke firing the page so he can announce the injuries himself in a regular press conference (but not during his annual Christmas injury freeze).

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • I've once again stuck a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player on the web HERE
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

22 November 2013

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 20-game report

This is my second look for the 2013/14 regular season looking at which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness. 

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

This analysis covers every team up to its 20th game. (Amazingly, this follows on from my 10-game analysis.)

For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are also being fed into Rob Vollman's Team Luck calculator on a weekly basis and I'll do my best to put out the same info via the medium known to Randy Carlyle as "that Wheatie machine or whatever" (@LW3H).

Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 20 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season) 

The following is a ranking of teams by CHIP over Games 11-20 only, to further illustrate some of the biggest movers since last time:


10 second analysis...
  • The Central isn't injury central
  • Boston, Philadelphia and (to a lesser extent) Tampa Bay have been much healthier than it would appear if you deduct the totals from their pseudo-retired players (see below)
  • San Jose lead the way in Burns injuries
  • Ottawa will presumably start injuring their own players, if they run any sort of points-to-injury correlation analysis covering last season and this season only
  • Among Buffalo's throng of fringe NHLers/borderline AHLers/Grigorenkos, I had originally excluded Corey Tropp's (eventual 15-game) absence from their numbers, but have now included it since he played games 16-20

The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:

The CMIP table is goalie heavy (insert Brodeur gag here) as is usually the case.  Carolina with four of the top 17 CHIP numbers, giving opposition team announcers something to talk about in the 30 seconds they have to spare between "Look! Two brothers on the same team!" conversation.

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.

 
An impressive early season showing for UBI/LBI cases, which only (?) made up 22% of the injury instances last season.  As more players have come back from injuries pre-dating the season starting, the crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) has drifted down from 0.91 to 0.86, compared to 0.80 per game last year (0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Finally, a look at the Evasiveness Index.  This is basically the proportion of injury instances for each team that have been described as either "Undisclosed" or the helpfully pointless "Upper/Lower Body" in the same TSN profiles.  I have made no judgement about whether the many instances of "Illness" (i.e. concussion), "Flu" (i.e. concussion) should also be included.


Phoenix and Carolina no strangers to the top of this table, Edmonton and Colorado no strangers to the other end.

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • I've once again stuck a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player on the web HERE
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com

2 November 2013

NHL man-games lost and CHIP analysis - 10-game report

This is my first look for the 2013/14 regular season looking at which teams have been hit hardest by injuries by trying to place a value on the games missed by players due to injury/illness.

The concept again - multiply each game missed by a player by his 2013/14 cap charge (including bonuses), then take the aggregate of these figures for each team and divide by 82. This indicator of value lost to a team by injury/illness is called CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

All being well, I'll be cutting the season into 10-game chunks for ease of comparability.  So this analysis covers every team up to its 10th game.  Blame the St. Louis Blues for being the last team to get there.

For a more regular snapshot, CHIP rankings are being fed into Rob Vollman's world-famous, Puck Daddy commenter approved, Team Luck calculator.  So go there, people.

Alternatively...
Again, for a different indicator of player "value", I've also illustrated a similar metric based on TOI/G alongside the CHIP numbers.  Clearly, neither cap charge nor TOI/G are perfect measures of player value, since each have a number of limitations and inconsistencies, but they provide a decent comparison and the results do vary somewhat.

A quick summary of the alternative metric:
  • TOI/G replaces cap charge as the measure of value in the calculation
  • For goalies, TOI/G has been worked out as Total Minutes Played / Games Dressed For* - i.e. a goalie playing every minute of 75% of the games, zero in the rest, would end up with a TOI/G of 45 minutes (or close to it, once you factor in OT and so on).  [*Actually, "Games Played by Team - Games Missed by Goalie" - I'm not inclined to disentangle any three-goalie systems or minor-league conditioning stints.]
  • This arguably overstates the worth of starting goalies somewhat, but it's simple and you could equally argue that a workhorse goalie is the hardest position to replace, so it's fair for them to have a much higher TOI/G figure
  • Where a player hasn't played all year or where a player fairly clearly has a reduced TOI/G figure due to getting injured in their only game or one of very few games, I've used TOI/G from last season (or further back if necessary)
  • For each player, multiply games missed by TOI/G to get (for a more palatable name) Cumulative Minutes of Injured Player (CMIP)
  • Take the aggregate of CMIP for the team and divide by games played by the team to arrive at AMIP (Average Minutes of Injured Players) - it feels more understandable expressing this metric as an average per game (whereas CHIP is a running total)
The figures...
The table below shows:
  • Total CHIP for each team over the first 10 games of the regular season, as well as the distribution of CHIP by position
  • The player who has contributed most to the team's CHIP figure
  • The number of players with a CHIP contribution of over $250,000 (think of it as being equivalent to a $1m player missing 20 games or a $4m player missing five games)
  • AMIP for each team over the same period (e.g. an AMIP of 40:00 could be seen as the team missing two 20-minute per game players for every game this season) 
10 second analysis...
The Sharks have obviously struggled badly without Marty Havlát, Raffi Torres, Adam Burish and Tomáš Hertl's sense of respect and dignity.  Meanwhile, the Kings, Blackhawks and Blues are demonstrating that they don't have enough grit and toughness to play in the gritty, tough areas needed to be successful.

The next lists are the top 30 individual CHIP and CMIP contributions:

Rick Nash aside, most of the CHIP leaders have been out all for all 10 games, which Nash tells me is "good".

Where does it hurt?
This is another update of the crude injury-by-location analysis. Again, I’ve just used the descriptions found in the player profiles on tsn.ca, so the figures will encompass all the inaccuracies and vagueness within them. It should give a broad indication, if nothing else, though.

 
Clearly very early days (and no attempt made to adjust for injuries pre-dating the season starting), but the crude rate of injuries (instances / total games played) stands at 0.91, compared to 0.80 per game last year (0.78 in 2011/12 and 0.76 in 2010/11).

Notes/Disclaimers
  • Figures exclude a few minor-leaguers / marginal NHLers (usually an arbitrary judgement on my part) who had been on the NHL club’s IR since pre-season. Generally, if a minor-leaguer gets called up and then injured in an NHL game, his games missed will then count towards the CHIP though.  Minor-league conditioning stints immediately after/during a period on IR might be included in the man-games lost figures (but can't guarantee I get it right every time)
  • For the avoidance of doubt, suspensions and absences due to "personal reasons" are not included in the figures.  However, as per previous seasons, any "retired" player still under contract (Savard, Pronger, Ohlund) is still included.
  • There are undoubtedly a few inaccuracies and inconsistencies in there - I do the best I can with the information out there. Corrections might well be picked up in subsequent updates
  • The cap figure obviously doesn't really correlate very well to the "worth" of a player in some cases, e.g. where players are seeing out an old (underpaid or rookie) contract or where players are horrendously overpaid and/or were signed by Paul Holmgren
  • Also, for any player traded where cap hit is retained by his old team, the cap hit used will only reflect that for his current team.
  • I've once again stuck a full team-by-team listing of games missed and CHIP/CMIP numbers by each player on the web HERE
  • Injury/games/TOI info courtesy of tsn.ca and nhl.com - man-games lost info more than likely does not exactly match up with the "official" figures released by individual teams
  • Cap info courtesy of capgeek.com